This book will change the way you think about war, terrorism, and
guerrilla warfare. David Kilcullen, an Australian with extensive
experience in many operating theaters around the world strikes at
the heart of why these situations arise, he analyzes the followers
and not just the leaders.
The reason why most analysts and pundits get the "war on terrorism"
wrong, is because they don't grasp the fundamental basis of why
insurgencies exist. As Kilcullen argues, "insurgency is a mass
social phenomenon." In other words, it is a populist social
movement formed in response to real or perceived oppressions. The
masses who have been manipulated into such movements are what
Kilcullen calls, the "accidental guerrilla," people who aren't
really hardened terrorists but have joined these social movements
because of the lack of alternatives.
Kilcullen uses a medical viral analogy to theorize the accidental
guerrilla syndrome which I wouldn't personally use, but
nevertheless helps to explain why and how insurgencies work. The
phases include: Infection; Contagion; Intervention; and
Rejection.
The core of Kilcullen's approach to counter-insurgency is simple:
population-centric. Everything must be done to protect the
population, build up governance and security infrastructure, and
foster the creation of a civil society.
Throughout the book, Kilcullen analyzes a number of case studies
including Iraq, Afghanistan, East Timor, Thailand, and Europe.
Kilcullen praises the strategy of the surge in Iraq, especially the
cooption of the Sunni Awakening, but is cautiously optimistic for
the future by noting that it could go either way in the
future.
Overall, this is one of the best books on counter-insurgency that
I've read in a long time. Kilcullen is clearly an expert with
decades of field experience, and his writing is pretty good to
boot. Definitely recommended for anyone wanting to learn more about
the "war on terrorism."