An Integrative Metaregression Framework for Descriptive Epidemiology by Abraham D. FlaxmanAn Integrative Metaregression Framework for Descriptive Epidemiology by Abraham D. Flaxman

An Integrative Metaregression Framework for Descriptive Epidemiology

EditorAbraham D. Flaxman, Theo Vos, Christopher J.L. Murray

Hardcover | October 12, 2015

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To provide the tools and knowledge needed in efforts to improve the health of the world?s populations, researchers collaborated on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010. The study produced comprehensive estimates of more than 200 diseases and health risk factors in 187 countries over two decades, results that will be used by governments and non-governmental agencies to inform priorities for global health research, policies, and funding.

An Integrative Metaregression Framework for Descriptive Epidemiology is the first book-length treatment of model-based meta-analytic methods for descriptive epidemiology used in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. In addition to collecting the prior work on compartmental modeling of disease, this book significantly extends the model by formally connecting the system dynamics model of disease progression to a statistical model of epidemiological rates and demonstrates how the two models were combined to allow researchers to integrate all available relevant data. Practical applications of the model to meta-analysis of several different diseases complement the theoretical foundations of what the editors call the integrative systems modeling of disease in populations. The book concludes with a detailed description of the future directions for research in model-based meta-analysis of descriptive epidemiological data.

Abraham D. Flaxman is assistant professor of global health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Theo Vos is professor of global health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Christopher J. L. Murray is professor of global health and director of ...
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Title:An Integrative Metaregression Framework for Descriptive EpidemiologyFormat:HardcoverDimensions:250 pages, 10.26 × 7.31 × 0.83 inPublished:October 12, 2015Publisher:University of Washington PressLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0295991844

ISBN - 13:9780295991849

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Table of Contents

FiguresTables Acknowledgments

Introduction | by Abraham D. Flaxman, Theo Vos, and Christopher J.L. Murray1. An Introductory Example2. A Motivating Example3. From Systematic Review to Metaregression4. History of Generic Disease Modeling5. What is Not in This Book

Section One | Theory and Methods

1. Background material on Bayesian methods / Abraham D. Flaxman1.1 A meta-analysis example1.2 Another meta-analysis example1.3 Summary

2. Statistical models for rates, ratios, and durations / Abraham D. Flaxman2.1 A motivating example2.2 Binomial model2.3 Beta-binomial model2.4 Poisson model2.5 Negative-binomial mode2.6 Transformed normal models2.7 Lower-bound data model2.8 Quantification of uncertainty 2.9 Comparison2.10 Summary and future work

3. Age pattern models / Abraham D. Flaxman3.1 Definition of spline models3.2 Choosing knots3.3 Penalized spline models3.4 Augmenting the spline model3.5 Summary and future work

4. Expert priors on age patterns / Abraham D. Flaxman4.1 Priors on level4.2 Priors on monotonicity4.3 Priors are not just for splines4.4 Hierarchical similarity priors on age patterns4.5 Summary and future work

5. Statistical models for heterogeneous age groups / Abraham D. Flaxman5.1 Overlapping age-group data 5.2 Midpoint model5.3 Disaggregation model5.4 Midpoint model with group width covariate5.5 Age-standardizing and age-integrating models5.6 Model comparison5.7 Summary and future work

6. Covariate modeling / Abraham D. Flaxman6.1 Cross-walk fixed effects to explain bias 6.2 Predictive fixed effects to improve out-of-sample estimation6.3 Fixed effects to explain variance6.4 Random effects for spatial variation 6.5 Covariates and consistency6.6 Summary and future work

7. Prevalence estimates from other data types / Abraham D. Flaxman7.1 A motivating example7.2 System dynamics model of disease in a population7.3 Endemic equilibrium7.4 Forward simulation examples7.5 Summary and future work

8. Numerical algorithms / Abraham D. Flaxman8.1 Markov chain Monte Carlo8.2 The Metropolis-Hastings step method8.3 The Adaptive Metropolis step method8.4 Convergence of the MCMC algorithm8.5 Initial values for MCMC 8.6 A meta-analysis example8.7 Empirical Bayesian priors to borrow strength between regions8.8 Summary and future work8.9 Challenges and limitations

Section Two | Applications

9. Knot selection in spline models / Yong Yi Lee, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman, Jed Blore, and Louisa Degenhardt10. Unclear age pattern, requiring expert priors / Hannah M. Peterson, Yong Yi Lee, Theo Vos, and Abraham D. Flaxman11. Empirical priors / David Chou, Hannah M. Peterson, Abraham D. Flaxman, Christopher J.L. Murray, and Mohsen Naghavi12. Overlapping, heterogeneous age groups / Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, Abraham D. Flaxman, Hannah M. Peterson, Mohsen Naghavi, and Sumeet Chugh13. Dealing with geographical variation / Abraham D. Flaxman, Khayriyyah Mohd Hanaah, Justina Groeger, Hannah M. Peterson, and Steven T. Wiersma14. Cross-walking with fixed effects / Amanda Baxter, Jed Blore, Abraham D. Flaxman, Theo Vos, and Harvey Whiteford15. Improving out-of-sample prediction / Ali Mokdad, Abraham D. Flaxman, Hannah M. Peterson, Christopher J.L. Murray, and Mohsen Naghavi16. Risk factors / Stephen S. Lim, Hannah M. Peterson, and Abraham D. Flaxman17. The compartmental model / Sarah K. Wulf, Abraham D. Flaxman, Mohsen Naghavi, and Giuseppe Remuzzi18. Knot selection in compartmental spline models / Marita Cross, Damian Hoy, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman, and Lyn March19. Expert priors in compartmental models / Alize Ferrari, Abraham D. Flaxman, Hannah M. Peterson, Theo Vos, and Harvey Whiteford20. Cause-specific mortality rates / Theo Vos, Jed Blore, Abraham D. Flaxman, Hannah M. Peterson, and Juergen Rehm

Conclusion / Abraham D. Flaxman, Christopher J.L. Murray, and Theo Vos

Appendix: GBD Study 2010 spatial hierarchy References Contributors About the editors Index