Economic Forecasting And Policy: Second Edition

Paperback | September 15, 2011

byNicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen, Bruno Tissot

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Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

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Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

NICOLAS CARNOT is Deputy Director for Social and Employment Policies in the French Treasury. He has held several positions at the French Ministry of Finance and the IMF, where he has been involved in macroeconomic forecasting and economic policy advice.    VINCENT KOEN is a Senior Official in the OECD Economics Department and was long...

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Format:PaperbackDimensions:416 pages, 9.66 × 6 × 1.24 inPublished:September 15, 2011Publisher:Palgrave MacmillanLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0230243223

ISBN - 13:9780230243224

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Extra Content

Table of Contents

Introduction
Overview 
Business Cycle Analysis 
Real Sector Building Blocks 
Financial Sector Dynamics 
Public Finances 
Medium and Long-Run Projections 
Risks and Accuracy 
Policymaking and Forecasts
Appendix: A Tour of the Forecasting Institutions
Annex I: The Data
Annex II: Time Series Methods
Annex III: Macroeconomic Models
Bibliography
Index

Editorial Reviews

"Good economic forecasters are pragmatists. They combine intuition, based on experience, with time series evidence and theory. Forget theory, and you lose internal consistency and become a bad story teller. Be a slave to theory, and you miss important developments because they do not fit. These skills are not taught in graduate school (they should). But they are taught in this remarkable book. Read it before you start forecasting."--Olivier J. Blanchard, Economics Professor, MIT and Chief Economist, IMF"This book reminded me almost effortlessly of the complications and pitfalls in the 'dark art' of forecasting I once had to learn the hard way. Its comprehensive and thoroughly up-to-date approach gave me insights I either never had or were simply not available at the time. It is clearly written, logically ordered, and reliant no more than necessary on mathematical techniques. It also draws key lessons from the 2007 financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed."--William R. White, Chairman of the OECD's Economic and Development Review Committee and Former Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, BIS