Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction

Hardcover | November 15, 2006

byHuug van den Dool

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This clear and accessible text describes the methods underlying short-term climate prediction at time scales of 2 weeks to a year. Although a difficult range to forecast accurately, there have been several important advances in the last ten years, most notably in understandingocean-atmosphere interaction (El Nino for example), the release of global coverage data sets, and in prediction methods themselves. With an emphasis on the empirical approach, the text covers in detail empirical wave propagation, teleconnections, empirical orthogonal functions, and constructedanalogue. It also provides a detailed description of nearly all methods used operationally in long-lead seasonal forecasts, with new examples and illustrations. The challenges of making a real time forecast are discussed, including protocol, format, and perceptions about users. Based wherepossible on global data sets, illustrations are not limited to the Northern Hemisphere, but include several examples from the Southern Hemisphere. Includes foreword by Professor Edward Lorenz (Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

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This clear and accessible text describes the methods underlying short-term climate prediction at time scales of 2 weeks to a year. Although a difficult range to forecast accurately, there have been several important advances in the last ten years, most notably in understandingocean-atmosphere interaction (El Nino for example), the rel...

Huug van den Dool gained his PhD in Dynamical Meteorology from the University of Utrecht in 1975. He has since worked as a researcher at KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the University of Maryland, and as Chief of Prediction at the CPC (Climate Prediction Center). He is currentl...
Format:HardcoverDimensions:240 pages, 9.21 × 6.14 × 0.67 inPublished:November 15, 2006Publisher:Oxford University PressLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0199202788

ISBN - 13:9780199202782

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Table of Contents

Professor Edward Lorenz (Massachusetts Institute of Technology): ForewordPreface1. Introduction2. Background on orthogonal functions and covariance3. Empirical wave propagation4. Teleconnections5. Empirical orthogonal functions6. Degrees of freedom7. Analogues8. Methods in short-term climate prediction9. The practice of short-term climate prediction10. ConclusionReferencesIndex