Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science by Roger M. Cooke

Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science

byRoger M. Cooke, Kristin Shrader-frechette

Hardcover | January 1, 1995

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This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and morecomplex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or shouldreason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, andpresents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.

About The Author

Roger M. Cooke is at Delft University of Technology.
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Details & Specs

Title:Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in ScienceFormat:HardcoverDimensions:336 pages, 9.57 × 6.5 × 1.22 inPublished:January 1, 1995Publisher:Oxford University Press

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0195064658

ISBN - 13:9780195064650

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Experts in Uncertainty is an extensive survey and critical examination of the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making.

Editorial Reviews

"It is, broadly speaking, about the speculations, guesses, and estimates of people who are considered experts, in so far as they serve as "cognitive input" in some decision process. . .The subject matter therefore overlaps disciplines from philosophy through policy analysis up to some rathertechnical mathematics." --Quarterly of Applied Mathematics