Forecasting, Warning And Responding To Transnational Risks

Hardcover | September 15, 2011

EditorChristoph O. Meyer, Chiara de Franco

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Assembling a high profile group of scholars and practitioners, this book investigates the interplay of forecasting; warnings about, and responses to, known and unknown transnational risks. It challenges conventional accounts of 'failures' of warning and preventive policy in both the academic literature and public debate.

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Assembling a high profile group of scholars and practitioners, this book investigates the interplay of forecasting; warnings about, and responses to, known and unknown transnational risks. It challenges conventional accounts of 'failures' of warning and preventive policy in both the academic literature and public debate.

CHIARA DE FRANCO is Research Associate in the Department of War Studies at King's College London, UK. She is also Manager of the FORESIGHT Project on Early Warning and Conflict Prevention. Previously, she was Lecturer in International Relations Theory and War Representations at the University of Florence, Italy, and Lecturer in Europe...

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Format:HardcoverDimensions:320 pages, 8.88 × 5.7 × 0.99 inPublished:September 15, 2011Publisher:Palgrave MacmillanLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0230297846

ISBN - 13:9780230297845

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Table of Contents

Introduction: The Challenges of Prevention; C.De Franco &C.O.Meyer
PART I: FORECASTING HARM
The Coastline of The Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction; D.Omand
Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between 'Intelligence Failure' and 'Warning Failure'; J.Goldman
Foresec: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project; V.Brummer, C.Burnley, H.Carlsen, A.Duta, B.Giegerich& R.Magoni
Modelling Transnational Environmental Risks: Scenarios for Decision Support; F.Wagner
Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime; T.Van Der Beken
PART II: COMMUNICATING AND LEARNING FROM WARNINGS
Mediatised Warnings: Late, Wrong, Yet Indispensable? Lessons from Climate Change and Civil War; C.De Franco &C.O.Meyer
Do They Listen? Communicating Warnings: An Intelligence Practitioners Perspective; W.Shapcott
Efas and Early Flood Warning in the EU; D.Demeritt &S.Nobert
Dark Secrets: Face-Work, Organizational Culture and Disaster Prevention; M.S.Gerstein &E.H.Schein
PART III: RESPONDING TO WARNINGS
Transnational Risk Management: A Business Perspective; C.Crossin &J.Smither
From the 'Neurotic' to the 'Rationalising' State: Risk and the Limits of Governance; H.Rothstein, O.Borraz& M.Huber
Ilos and Silences: The Role of Fragmentation in the Recent Financial Crisis; G.Tett
Forecasting, Warning and Preventive Policy: The Case of Finance; T.F.Huertas
Prospective Sense-Making: A Realistic Approach to 'Foresight for Prevention' in an Age of Complex Threats; W.H.Fishbein
Conclusion: New Perspectives for Theorising and Addressing Transnational Risks; C.O.Meyer& C.De Franco