Major Recessions: Britain and the World 1920-1995

Paperback | September 1, 2000

byChristopher Dow

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In the twentieth century there have been five major recessions: two in the interwar period, and three more starting 1973, 1979, and 1989. This book focuses on events in the UK, but sets them in their international context and makes frequent comparisons with other countries. Major recessionshappened at a similar time in all major countries, and the lessons are general. Three main conclusions are reached: (1) major recessions reflect abrupt fallings off in demand, not supply; (2) these are due to identifiable demand shocks and by swings in consumer and business confidence which amplify the direct effects of demand shock; (3) major recessions are not predictable. In the final chapter, Christopher Dow puts forward an insider's view on how to avoid future severe recessions: action must be taken to control booms, which if uncontrolled will lead to a period of bust, and once a major recession has begun, fiscal and monetary policy must be adjusted to mitigatethe downturn. Often unpopular with economists, this is the line which many governments and central banks take: Major Recessions will help them to have more success.

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In the twentieth century there have been five major recessions: two in the interwar period, and three more starting 1973, 1979, and 1989. This book focuses on events in the UK, but sets them in their international context and makes frequent comparisons with other countries. Major recessionshappened at a similar time in all major countr...

Before his death in 1998, Christopher Dow was Visiting Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). His distinguished career included periods as Senior Economic Adviser to the UK Treasury, Deputy Director of NIESR, Assistant Secretary General of OECD, and Executive Director of the Bank of England.

other books by Christopher Dow

Format:PaperbackPublished:September 1, 2000Publisher:Oxford University PressLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0199241236

ISBN - 13:9780199241231

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Table of Contents

1. IntroductionPart I. Prior Assumptions and Methodological Preliminaries2. The Facts which Have to be Explained3. The Causal Structure of the Economy4. Supply and Demand Influence on the Rate of Growth5. Shocks and Response in Major FluctuationsPart II. Case Studies of Five Major Recessions6. The Two Interwar Recessions (1920-22 and 1929-32) and the US Great Depression7. The Prolonged Interval without Major Recession 1945-738. The Two OPEC Recessions (1973-75 and 1979-82)9. The Credit Expansion of the late Eighties and the Recession of the Early NinetiesPart III. Conclusions10. The Theoretical Model: The Behaviour of the Economy in Major Fluctuations11. The Causation of Major Recessions: Summary and Discussion of Empirical Findings12. Are Recurrent Major Recessions Inevitable?

Editorial Reviews

Reviewed in Long Range Planning, October 1999. OK review but no quotes to pull out.