Prediction or Prophecy?: The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences by Gregor BetzPrediction or Prophecy?: The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences by Gregor Betz

Prediction or Prophecy?: The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political…

byGregor BetzForeword byProf. Dr. Holm Tetens

Paperback | September 26, 2006

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Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?
Dr. Gregor Betz ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter von Prof. Dr. Holm Tetens am Fachbereich Philosophie und Geisteswissenschaften der Freien Universität Berlin.
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Title:Prediction or Prophecy?: The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political…Format:PaperbackDimensions:295 pagesPublished:September 26, 2006Publisher:Deutscher UniversitätsverlagLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:3835002236

ISBN - 13:9783835002234

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Table of Contents

Recent performance of economic forecastsA historical perspective on economic forecast performanceForecast performance in natural sciencesPredictability of complex systemsExpectations and reflexivenessSensitive dependence on initial conditionsExperiment and simulationUnrealistic assumption explanationsConsequences for traditional decision making