Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks

Other | October 27, 2008

byB. John Garrick, B. John Garrick

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The perception, assessment and management of risk are increasingly important core principles for determining the development of both policy and strategic responses to civil and environmental catastrophes. Whereas these principles were once confined to some areas of activity i.e. financial and insurance, they are now widely used in civil and environmental engineering. Comprehensive and readable, Civil and Environmental Risk: Mitigation and Control, provides readers with the mathematical tools and quantitative methods for determining the probability of a catastrophic event and mitigating and controlling the aftermath. With this book engineers develop the required skills for accurately assessing risk and formulating appropriate response strategies. The two part treatment starts with a clear and rigorous exposition of the quantitative risk assessment process, followed by self-contained chapters concerning applications. One of the first books to address both natural and human generated disasters, topics include events such as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents and terrorist attacks. Case studies appear at the end of the book allowing engineers to see how these principles are applied to scenarios such as a super hurricane or mega tsunamis, a reactor core melt down in a nuclear plant, a terrorist attack on the national electric grid, and an abrupt climate change brought about by a change in the ocean currents in the North Atlantic. Written by the current Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Environmental risk managers will find this reference a valuable and authoritative guide both in accurately calculating risk and its applications in their work.



Key Features
Mathematical tools for calculating and Controlling Catastrophic Risk

Presents a systematic method for ranking the importance of societal threats

Includes both Natural and Industrial Catastrophes

Case studies cover such events as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents, and terrorist attacks.

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From the Publisher

The perception, assessment and management of risk are increasingly important core principles for determining the development of both policy and strategic responses to civil and environmental catastrophes. Whereas these principles were once confined to some areas of activity i.e. financial and insurance, they are now widely used in civi...

Format:OtherDimensions:376 pages, 1 × 1 × 1 inPublished:October 27, 2008Publisher:Academic PressLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0080923453

ISBN - 13:9780080923451

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Extra Content

Table of Contents

PART 1 ? WHY RISK ASSESSMENT

Chapter 1 ? Understanding Risk Assessement
1.1 The Target Risks
1.2 The Quantitative Definition of Risk
1.3 The Meaning of Quantification
1.4 Form of the Results of a Quantitative Risk Assessment
1.5 References
Chapter 2 ? Analytical Foundations of Quantitative Risk Assessment
2.1 Quantitative Definition of Risk
2.2 The Scenario Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment
2.3 Interpretation of Probability and Likelihood
2.4 Quantification of the Scenarios
2.5 Assembling the Results
2.6 References
Chapter 3 ? The Rational Management of Catastrophic Risks
3.1 Benefits of Quantitative Risk Assessment
3.2 The Role of the Case Studies
3.3 Comparing Quantitative Risks Using the Case Studies
3.4 Observations from the Case Studies
3.5 Insights from Comparing Results
3.6 Where Do We Go from Here?
References
PART 2 ? Risk Assessment Case Studies

Chapter 3 ? Risk of a Catastrophic Hurricane in
3.1 Summary of the Risk Assessment of a Catastrophic Hurricane Impacting New Orleans, Louisiana
3.2 Risk Assessment (Based on Data from 1900 to 2004)
3.3 Commentary on the New Orleans Hurricane Risk
3.4 Risk Assessment (Based on Data from 1900 to 1950)
3.5 References
Chapter 4- Risk Assessment Nuclear Power
4.1 Calculating Likelihoods
4.2 Structuring the Scenarios
4.3 Steps That Have Evolved for Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment
4.4 Application to Nuclear Power: A Success Story
4.5 An Example of Nuclear Power Plant Quantitative Risk Assessment Results
4.6 References

PART 3 ? WORK IN PROGRESS AND FUTURE APPLICATIONS

Chapter 5 ? Terrorist Attack on the National Electrical Grid
5.1 Summary of Insights from the Scoping Analysis
5.2 A Scoping Analysis to Support a Quantitative Risk Assessment of a Specific Terrorist Attack
5.3 References

Chapter 6 ? Abrupt Climate Change
6.1 Summary of Insights from the Scoping Analysis
6.2 Scoping Analysis to Support a Quantitative Risk Assessment of Abrupt Climate Change
6.3 Illustration of Bayesian Analyses for Warming Rates
6.4 References
8.7

APPENDICES

Appendix A ? Roots of Quantitative Risk Assessment with an Example
A.1 Calculating Likelihoods
A.2 Structuring the Scenarios
A.3 Steps That Have Evolved for Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment
A.4 Application to Nuclear Power: A Success Story
A.5 An Example of Nuclear Power Plant Quantitative Risk Assessment Results
A.6 References
Appendix B ? Quantification of Hurricane Risk Supporting Evidence
Appendix C ? Quantification of Asteroid Risk Supporting Evidence