Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future

Hardcover | May 15, 2011

byGeorge Wright, George Cairns

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Scenarios are a widely used approach to aid strategic analysis. An innovative guide to new methods in scenario thinking, this book presents a detailed step-by-step account of the “intuitive logics” method for developing and using scenarios within organizations. The authors detail a range of methodological innovations and show how to apply the most relevant technique to a particular situation. The approach is based on a mix of both high-level research and top-level consultancy experience. The book focuses on the demonstration and illustration of practical steps in scenario development processes.

Scenario Thinking describes the logical bases of a range of scenario methods and provides detailed ‘road maps’ on how to implement them – together with practical examples of their application. The authors review the strengths and weaknesses of each method and detail the time and material resources that each method requires, providing a comprehensive overview of the most useful and successful methods at your organization’s disposal.

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Scenarios are a widely used approach to aid strategic analysis. An innovative guide to new methods in scenario thinking, this book presents a detailed step-by-step account of the “intuitive logics” method for developing and using scenarios within organizations. The authors detail a range of methodological innovations and show how to ap...

GEORGE WRIGHT is Professor of Management at Durham Business School, University of Durham, UK.  He has consulted and provided management development programs on scenario thinking with organizations such as Bayer, HBoS, Thales, Scottish Power, Petronas, EADS, United Utilities and local government in the UK and Australia.  He has publish...

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Format:HardcoverDimensions:192 pages, 9.6 × 6.35 × 0.7 inPublished:May 15, 2011Publisher:Palgrave MacmillanLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0230271561

ISBN - 13:9780230271562

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgements
Introduction
Why should the individual and organization practice scenario thinking?
Working with scenarios: introducing the basic method
Incorporating stakeholder values and facilitating critique of scenario storylines
Understanding stakeholder viewpoints.
Augmented scenario approaches: delving deeper and stretching wider
Scenarios and decision analysis
Creating robust strategies and robust organizations
The backward logic method of constructing extreme scenarios
Diagnosing organizational receptiveness
Summary
Appendix 1