Secular Cycles

August 9, 2009|
Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin
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Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles.



Secular Cycleselaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory''s specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications.


An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists,Secular Cycleswill interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.

Peter Turchinis professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and adjunct professor of mathematics at the University of Connecticut.Sergey A. Nefedovis senior research scientist at the Institute of History and Archaeology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ural Branch.
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Title:Secular Cycles
Format:Hardcover
Product dimensions:360 pages, 9.25 X 6 X 0 in
Shipping dimensions:360 pages, 9.25 X 6 X 0 in
Published:August 9, 2009
Publisher:Princeton University Press
Language:English
Appropriate for ages:All ages
ISBN - 13:9780691136967

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