Stalking the Black Swan: Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility

Kobo ebook | April 22, 2010

byKenneth A. Posner

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Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard& mdash;many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal& mdash;our computers and our minds& mdash;Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

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Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard& mdash;many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme vo...

Kenneth A. Posner is a financial services industry analyst and a fifteen-year veteran of Morgan Stanley, where he served as managing director and senior research analyst and where his work received high rankings from Institutional Investor and Greenwich Associates. He earned his MBA from the University of Chicago Graduate School of B...

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Format:Kobo ebookPublished:April 22, 2010Publisher:Columbia University PressLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0231521677

ISBN - 13:9780231521673

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Stalking the Black Swan doesn't attempt to explain why or how the crisis happened, but instead offers practical, crisis-tested advice on methods for uncovering a similar looming disaster in your own portfolio.