Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock

Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction

byPhilip E. Tetlock

Hardcover | April 15, 2017

not yet rated|write a review

Pricing and Purchase Info

$10.00 online 
$34.95 list price save 71%
Earn 50 plum® points

In stock online

Ships free on orders over $25

Available in stores

about

From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists comes a seminal book on forecasting that shows, for the first time, how we can all get better at making predictions.

       In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
     The authors show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, learning to think probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.
     Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

About The Author

PHILIP E. TETLOCK is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, and the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments i...
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

by Philip E. Tetlock

$25.85$28.95

Pre-order online

Not yet available in stores

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by Philip E. Tetlock

$26.46$29.99

In stock online

Not available in stores

Superforecasting – Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose
Superforecasting – Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose

by Philip E. Tetlock

$27.99

Available for download

Not available in stores

Shop this author

Details & Specs

Title:Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of PredictionFormat:HardcoverDimensions:352 pages, 9.66 × 6.48 × 1.17 inPublished:April 15, 2017Publisher:McClelland & StewartLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0771070527

ISBN - 13:9780771070525

Nearby Stores

We found 0 nearby stores

Customer Reviews of Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction

Reviews

Extra Content

Editorial Reviews

• "Tetlock's work is fascinating and important, and he and Gardner have written it up here with verve." --The Financial Times
 • "Superforecasting is the most important scientific study I've ever read on prediction." --The Bloomberg View