The Determinants of Currency Crises: A Political-economy Approach

Hardcover | April 17, 2009

byB. Rother

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This book explores the role of political factors in the occurrence of currency crises, using an eclectic approach that blends case studies, a rigorous theoretical discussion, and econometric analysis.

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This book explores the role of political factors in the occurrence of currency crises, using an eclectic approach that blends case studies, a rigorous theoretical discussion, and econometric analysis.

BJÖRN ROTHER is an Economist at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., and worked previously as a consultant with Mckinsey & Company Inc. He holds a Doctorate in Economics from the Free University of Berlin.

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Format:HardcoverDimensions:272 pages, 8.5 × 5.51 × 0.03 inPublished:April 17, 2009Publisher:Palgrave Macmillan UKLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0230221815

ISBN - 13:9780230221819

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Table of Contents

Introduction
PART I: SOME CLUES FROM HISTORY  
Introduction 
Ending Gold Convertibility in the 1930s 
Coalition Bickering in Turkey, 2000-01
Meltdown in Argentina, 1991-2002
Emerging Political Patterns
PART II: POLITICAL-ECONOMY CRISIS MODELS
Introduction
A Basic Second-Generation Model
The Credibility Problem of Currency Pegs
Two Types of Commitment Devices
Uncertainty and the Role of Elections
A Fiscal Veto Player
Currency Crises and Fiscal Policy Decisions
The Scope for Intra-Governmental Confict
A Stochastic Fiscal Target
Lobbying and Exchange Rate Stability
PART III: THE ROLE OF POLITICS IN CRISIS PREDICTION
Introduction
Literature Survey
Data Set and Empirical Strategy
Country Sample and Crisis Measure
The Choice of Regressors
Empirical Strategy
Key Findings
Descriptive Statistics
Political-Economy Logit Models
Robustness Checks
Extensions
The Link between Elections and Crises
The Link between Left Governments and Crises
Conclusion
Appendices
Deriving the Supply Function
Survey of Econometric Studies
Data Issues
Endnotes
Bibliography