The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World (with a New Foreword)

Paperback | May 15, 2010

byIan Bremmer, Preston Keat

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As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these eventsand the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figuresin political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat surveya vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure andenergy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But moreimportantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not.

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From the Publisher

As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these eventsand the power of their impact, the "tail" of ...

Ian Bremmer is the President of Eurasia Group and author of The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall. He is a contributing editor for Foreign Policy and The National Interest. Preston Keat is Director of Research at Eurasia Group. He presently teaches at Columbia University's School of International and Public Af...

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The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World (with a New Preface)
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Kobo ebook|May 13 2010

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Format:PaperbackDimensions:272 pages, 9.25 × 6.13 × 0.68 inPublished:May 15, 2010Publisher:Oxford University PressLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0199737274

ISBN - 13:9780199737277

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Table of Contents

IntroductionPart 1: The Universe of Political Risks1. Geopolitical Risks: Risks rising from great power rivalries and international wars2. Terrorism: Risks arising from terrorist groups3. Capital Markets: Risks from government's macroeconomic policies (defaults, capital controls)4. Expropriations: Risks from a government's takeover of private property5. Regulatory Risks from government's changing the rules of the game6. Domestic instability: Risks from government weakness and potential for internal strife7. Unknown Risks: "Black swans," nullknown unknownsnull and events that cannot be necessarily conceivedPart II: Analysis and Mitigation of Risks8. Methodology and Social Sciences Chapter9. Reporting of Risks10. Mitigation of RisksConclusionNew Afterword for the Paperback Edition

Editorial Reviews

"Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even - perhaps especially - in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist