The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism

Paperback | April 5, 2015

byAndreas Schedler

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Dictatorship is not what it was once. Military and single-party regimes have been withering away. Today, most dictators organize multiparty elections. The Politics of Uncertainty presents an analytical framework and empirical data that allow us to understand the distinctive political dynamicsof these new electoral authoritarian regimes. It argues that all autocracies suffer from institutional uncertainties: their hold on power is never secure. They also suffer from informational uncertainties: they can never know for sure how secure they are. The author identifies these uncertainties asthe central axes of regimes conflicts under dictatorship. The "politics of uncertainty" comprises the struggle between rulers and dissidents over these twin uncertainties. In electoral autocracies, it unfolds primarily as competition over electoral uncertainty. The study of electoralauthoritarianism is a vibrant growth industry in political science and this book is required reading for all students of elections, authoritarianism, and democratization. Oxford Studies in Democratization is a series for scholars and students of comparative politics and related disciplines. Volumes concentrate on the comparative study of the democratization process that accompanied the decline and termination of the cold war. The geographical focus of the series isprimarily Latin America, the Caribbean, Southern and Eastern Europe, and relevant experiences in Africa and Asia. The series editor is Laurence Whitehead, Senior Research Fellow, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

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Dictatorship is not what it was once. Military and single-party regimes have been withering away. Today, most dictators organize multiparty elections. The Politics of Uncertainty presents an analytical framework and empirical data that allow us to understand the distinctive political dynamicsof these new electoral authoritarian regimes...

Andreas Schedler is Professor of Political Science at the Center for Economic Teaching and Research (CIDE) in Mexico City. He earned his PhD from the University of Vienna. He has conducted research on issues such as anti-political-establishment parties, accountability, democratic consolidation and transition, elections, and authoritar...

other books by Andreas Schedler

Format:PaperbackDimensions:508 pages, 9.21 × 6.14 × 1.08 inPublished:April 5, 2015Publisher:Oxford University PressLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0198743246

ISBN - 13:9780198743248

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Table of Contents

I: Analytical framework1. The politics of uncertainty2. Shaping the authoritarian arena3. Shaping the electoral arena4. Two levels of struggle5. The power of electionsII: Empirical explorations6. Comparative cases and data7. The struggle over electoral uncertainty8. The calculus of electoral manipulation9. The calculus of electoral protest10. The struggle over regime changeConclusionAppendix A: Case selectionAppendix B: Description of variablesAppendix C: Coding manipulation and protestAppendix D: Descriptive statisticsAppendix E: Miscellaneous results

Editorial Reviews

"The Politics of Uncertainty was like music to my brain. Page after page delivered resonant lessons, findings, patterns, and arguments... This is quite simply the best book that we now have on the decisively non-democratic character of these so-called 'hybrid' authoritarian regimes." --Dan Slater, Politica y Gobierno