Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy by S.O. FuntowiczUncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy by S.O. Funtowicz

Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy

byS.O. Funtowicz, J.R. Ravetz

Paperback | October 1, 2011

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60 -I 137.0~29 ERROR BARS . tONE (1" \ \ \ 4\0 \ \ E \ a. a. \ Z30 \ 137.0388 \ 0 137.0377 \ ~ \ ~20 \ \ 0 to 0 '50 Fig.1. Successive recommended values of the fine-structure constand IX-I (B. N. Taylor et 01., 1969,7) reminder that the value is not fully accepted by colleagues, since they will expect it to jump about for a while longer. Our next example is taken from a recent study in the social sciences. It shows how a set of related estimates of uncertainty can be expressed clearly and effectively by NUSAP. Suppose that we wish to forecast what the future price of a basic commodity might be, especially when at the moment its price is artificially maintained by a cartel of producers. There is no experimental evidence on such a future contingency, and yet we are not completely in the dark. There is a long history of expertise in the field; and there is a well-tried standard model by which experts' guesses can be translated into mathematical form.
S.O. Funtowicz is a Visiting Scientist at the European Community Joint Research Centre at Ispra (Varese), Italy. He has taught mathematics, logic and research methodology in Buenos Aires, Argentina. J.R. Ravetz is the Chairman of the Council for Science and Society in London. He was formerly Reader in the History and Philosophy of Sc...
Title:Uncertainty and Quality in Science for PolicyFormat:PaperbackPublished:October 1, 2011Publisher:Springer NetherlandsLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:940106766X

ISBN - 13:9789401067669


Table of Contents

Prologue. Introduction: Some Illustrative Examples. 1. Science for Policy: Uncertainty and Quality. 2. Uncertainty and its Management. 3. The Mathematical Language. 4. Craft Skills with Numbers. 5. Measurement. 6. Maps. 7. Mathematical Notations: Functions and Design. 8. The NUSAP Notational Scheme: Introduction. 9. The NUSAP Categories: Numeral, Unit and Spread. 10. The NUSAP Categories: Assessment and Pedigree. 11. The Pedigree for Statistical Information. 12. Mapping the Uncertainties of Radiological Hazards. 13. Further Applications of NUSAP. Epilogue. References. Index.