The End of Growth

Kobo ebook | May 8, 2012

byJeff Rubin

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In an urgent follow-up to his best-selling Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller, Jeff Rubin argues that the end of cheap oil means the end of growth. What it will be like to live in a world where growth is over?
Economist and resource analyst Jeff Rubin is certain that the world's governments are getting it wrong. Instead of moving us toward economic recovery, measures being taken around the globe right now are digging us into a deeper hole. Both politicians and economists are missing the fact that the real engine of economic growth has always been cheap, abundant fuel and resources. But that era is over. The end of cheap oil, Rubin argues, signals the end of growth--and the end of easy answers to renewing prosperity.
Rubin's own equation is clear: with China and India sucking up the lion's share of the world's ever more limited resources, the rest of us will have to make do with less. But is this all bad? Can less actually be more? Rubin points out that there is no research to show that people living in countries with hard-charging economies are happier, and plenty of research to show that some of the most contented people on the planet live in places with no-growth or slow-growth GDPs. But it doesn't matter whether it's bad or good, it's the new reality: our world is not only about to get smaller, our day-to-day lives are about to be a whole lot different.

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In an urgent follow-up to his best-selling Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller, Jeff Rubin argues that the end of cheap oil means the end of growth. What it will be like to live in a world where growth is over? Economist and resource analyst Jeff Rubin is certain that the world's governments are getting it wrong. Instead...

Format:Kobo ebookPublished:May 8, 2012Publisher:Random House of CanadaLanguage:English

The following ISBNs are associated with this title:

ISBN - 10:0307360911

ISBN - 13:9780307360915

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Customer Reviews of The End of Growth


Rated 5 out of 5 by from The end of growth Excellent overall geopolitic review re. Energy consumption its effect on people, the planet and our respective wallet
Date published: 2015-05-10
Rated 4 out of 5 by from End of Growth Current oil prices don't lend much credibility to his thesis, but interest insights nonetheless
Date published: 2013-05-03
Rated 4 out of 5 by from The End of Growth Provocative and unsettling yet rational and thoroughly believable, Steve Rubin's portrayal of the demise of classic economic growth is a fascinating read. After reading this I find I question everything I consume and wonder what kind of life future generations will face. Read this book and talk about it with your family, friends and colleagues.
Date published: 2013-01-10
Rated 4 out of 5 by from Thought Provoking Predictions For An Energy Constrained World Former CIBC World Markets Chief Economist Jeff Rubin has followed up his debut bestseller “Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller” with a solid, similarly themed book. Like most best-selling economists, Rubin weaves together facts, economic theory and his own views to tell a compelling story, though his story is quite different than others’. Rubin begins with the basics, including a brief overview of fiscal and monetary policy, monetarists and Keynesians, and economic growth. That out of the way, he then tells us that today's economic (i.e. deficit financing and easy money) policies are counterproductive because they will lead to soaring debts and rising inflation. With apologies to Rogoff and Reinhart, this time it really is different: the end of cheap oil is behind us; economic growth will stop; and in a static economy, only one half of the debt-to-GDP ratio will be going up -- the wrong half. When growth comes to a standstill, persuading creditors to keep financing government deficits will become a hard sell. Government policies and current lifestyles predicated on economic growth fueled by cheap oil are misdirected and outdated, respectively, and will be forced to change. Digressing from his central premise a bit, Rubin notes that in countries where another round of bailouts would mean taxpayers become de facto owners of banks, outright nationalization could be the end result. In separate asides, but surprising for a former banker, Rubin agrees that putting investment bankers on civil service salaries might actually bring about the types of reforms needed in the financial services industry, and that if financial institutions are now too big to fail, the solution seems simple: make them smaller. Back to Rubin’s central theme, with higher energy prices we in the West should get used to smaller homes, less conspicuous consumption, less driving, and more job sharing. Compounding this natural response to higher energy costs is the increasing wealth in developing countries (where all remaining economic growth is coming from), which is increasing their appetite for energy intensive protein (largely beef), automobiles, and other modern conveniences, and fueling even higher global energy prices. In some developing countries increasing food costs (due to energy costs) are outpacing economies’ abilities to generate wealth and causing social unrest such as the recent Arab Spring uprisings. As befits a book concerned with energy scarcity, Rubin outlines the energy options available to nations, including relevant history and current geopolitical context, and delves into broader environmental issues, including the population and sustainability theories of Malthus and, more recently scientists/authors Paul Ehrlich and James Lovelock. He notes the drawbacks to cap and trade emissions policies and to the Kyoto protocol, delves into how realistic projections for future energy use really are, and ultimately (and optimistically) concludes that economics (diminishing oil use as prices climb) will take care of most of the global warming issue. The book is well edited with few typographical errors, though one in particular made me smile - on page 68 Rubin refers to cheap “bobbles” shipped from China to developed country markets, which brought to mind the popular bobblehead figures, though he likely meant to use the homonym “baubles”. Despite its many strengths, there is a central flaw in the book, though. Rubin’s central premise is the link between oil and growth, but he offers no hard data to show cause and effect, or even for that matter correlation. It's just stated as fact. In discussing a decades old wager between Ehrlich and economist Julian Simon, Rubin acknowledges that Ehrlich’s 1960s projection of widespread famine and resource scarcity in the face of increasing population lost out to Simon’s prediction of adaptability, innovation and declining resource prices. Rubin’s book assumes the very adaptability and innovation that proved Ehrlich wrong are now at their limits, and that growth will cease - a very, very tall assumption. As the former chief economist for a major bank, Rubin is used to delivering both detailed analyses to sophisticated captains of industry and mass market messages to the bank's' rank and file customers. This book is aimed squarely at the mass market. It deserves the undoubtedly wide readership it will garner, though unfortunately what makes the book so accessible - its lack of hard data - is also its major weakness. A thought provoking, optimistic, and very readable book.
Date published: 2012-05-22